How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between

Chapter 1

• “Think slow, act fast” or Think first, then do.
• Planning is a safe harbor. Production is where costs explode. Don’t rush into planning!
• Some people might think that planning to much can delay a project. But this is actually the opposite based on Flyvberg’s data.
• The iron law of project management shows that only 0.5% of projects are on budget, on time and on benefits. Even traditional “buffers” aren’t enough because this will cause the project to be disapproved.
• Megaproject outcomes have a “fat tail” - this means means that most extreme examples of failure are aplenty.
• Most projects will fail because of psychology and power. Emotions and irrationality on the side of humans often cause project disasters.
• People are really bad at estimation. Even project cost overruns!
• Bent Flyvberg, with McKinsey built a database of 16,000 megaprojects to come up with these statistics.
• The duration of a project is an open window - the longer its open, the more you are exposed to “black swan” events. This is why you can close the window. Keep it short! (This is the Act Fast bit). You can’t really control black swan events.
• You get a project done as quickly as possible by planning it right.
• Modularity might be the silver bullet to this.

Chapter 2

• The Commitment Fallacy…why do we rush to commit?
• Rushing tends to limit your options. You tend to commit to the most accessible option at the time. Your vision is limited.
• Purposes and goals are not carefully considered. Alternatives are not explored. Difficulties and risks are not investigated. Solutions are not found.
• The perils of “lock-in” - the commitment fallacy. A behavioral bias.
• “Act in haste, repent at leisure”
• “Strategic misrepresentation” - the tendency to deliberately and systematically distort information for strategic purposes. Everything becomes superficial.
• You want the flight attendant, not the pilot to be an optimist. Hard-nosed analysis that sees reality as clearly as possible. This is widespread, stubborn and costly.
• System One (fast) and System two (stubborn and analytics) work in sequence. System one sets things into motion but we shouldn’t override system two. System one decisions feel true.
• “Optimism Bias”
• We are rookies when it comes to big project. This is why System One doesn’t work - although it usually does.
• We always imagine the best case scenario.
• It isn’t bias for action (where the qualifier is that it should be reversible) but rather a bias against thinking!
• Planning is working on the project. It’s the most cost-effective part of the project.
• The first budget is really just a downpayment. If people knew the real costs, nothing would be approved.
• We tend to double down when things go wrong. There is a costly escalation of commitment. So it’s basically Sunk Cost Fallacy.
• Commit to not-committing. Find all the flaws and opportunities. Commit to completing diligence first.

Chapter 3

• “Thinking from Right to Left”
• This is similar to Jeff Bezos’ “Thinking Backwards” philsophy.
• Frank Gehry would always ask the fundamental question “Why are we doing this” first. And this was responsible for making the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao so successful.
• Don’t jump straight to a conclusion. Zoom out first.
• Good planning explores, imagines, analyzes, test and iterates. This takes time. Slow is a consequence of doing things right, not the cause.
• Start with a question - “Let’s build a house” is an answer. Projects fail because we don’t ask questions about the GOAL of the project.
• It’s safe to assume that’s there’s more to learn in this case. Always. Go beyond WYSIATI - What You See Is All There
• Projects are not goals in themselves. Projects are how goals are achieved. We build skyscrapers and software because there is an intended outcome.
• The foundation of a successful project is a clear, informed understanding of what a goal is.
• In project planning, it would help to focus on the right (when it comes to flowcharts).
• Don’t lose sight of the right.
• Revisit Jeff Bezos’s PR/FAQ approach.
• Thinking from right to left is actually not natural. People tend to focus on what is in front of you.

Chapter 4

• “Pixar Planning”
• People are terrible at getting things right the first time.
• “Experiri” you have to experience planning. “To try” Experiment and experience.
• Refer to Thomas Edison’s maxim “I’ve successfully found ten thousand ways that will not work”
• Go for the positive learning curve.
• The Pixar way introduces a lot of iteration and prototyping, similar to lean startups. It starts with time. The higher the fidelity, the better. The final output we see in theaters is probably the ninth version of the material.
• The process involves an insane amount of work.
• Iteration frees people to experiment.
• Besides, planning is CHEAP.
• Planning is an active process. It’s DOING.
• Move fast and break thing does not apply to megaprojects.
• So why not a “Maximum Virtual Product”?

Chapter 5

• Experience (people who have done something before) plays a critical role in a project. In fact, this makes all the difference in the world.
• But projects do not routinely make maximum use of experience. Politics usually gets in the way.
• We do not appreciate experience enough.
• Aristotle says that experience is the “fruit of years” - phronesis - or practical wisdom. It’s the highest intelectual virtue. Yet we marginalize it.
• The ambition to be first with something is how experience gets sidelined. You are not that unique.
• Learn from other projects. First mover advantage is greatly overstated. Half of the pioneers failed as compared to 8 percent of settlers. Settlers also get a higher market share.
• Become a “fast follower” instead of learning from the first mover.
• Being cutting-edge, nay, bleeding-edge with things exposes you to a lot of risk. Biggest, first, tallest - comes with risk. It’s also hubris. A weakness.
• Reliable technology can actually be an advantage.
• Technology as “frozen experience” Newer is not necessarily better.
• Look at the Olympics and its “Eternal Beginner Syndrome” that would always guarantee project failure.
• So we should max out on experience instead.
• Empire State Buildng did exactly this. Not one 102-story building but 102 one-story buildings.
• We feel “tacit knowledge” - we can know more than we can tell. Feel. This is skilled intuition.
• We need first-hand experience with a lot of things. If you have phronesis - you’ve got it all.
• The less proven something, the more it needs to be tested.
• When something works, keep it. When it doesn’t, get rid of it.
• A good plan maximizes experience or experimentation. A great plan does both. The best plan maximizes both delivered by a project with phronesis.

Chapter 6

• So you think your project is unique?
• Understanding that your project is one of those is key to geting your forecasts right and managing your risks.
• Robert Caro almost killed himself by coming up with a really bad estimate of his effort. His forecast was really off.
• People tend to perform “Anchoring and adjustment”. Caro used the wrong anchor, a fixed point used a basis for his estimation. The quality of the anchor is actually critical. And choosing an anchor is inherently flawed. Even if it makes superficial sense.
• You can employ “Reference Class Forecasting” where you take time to gather data on similar projects and find out how long these things were completed.
• This shouldn’t be hard. “You’re absolutely unique, just like everyone else”
• To produce a reliable forcast, you need the outside view.
• See you project as one in a calss of similar projects already done. “One of those” - then use this as your anchor.
• You have to overcome the “uniqueness bias”
• RCF is also simple. It’s the simplest. Calculating an average is easy. But finding the numbers is actually the hard part.
• But you don’t have to work too hard. You can just have a simple anchor around things. Sample enough. Like ten. RCF can already deliver so much value even with few data points.
• But sure, you can get the RCF plus at 10-15% contingency to mitigate risks. This should help you cover against “black swans”
• You can also layer with the “think slow, act fast” approach.

Chapter 7

• Can ignorance be your friend?
• There’s a contrarian school of thought around planning. Some scholars argue that “just doing it” it enough and humans are capable of tapping into their creativity to deliver successful projects. This is promoted by the Albert O. Hirschman, a renowned economist.
• Hirschman argues that providential ignorance is our friend in megaprojects. We underestimate our creativity anyways so why not the difficulties of the tasks we face. The benefits of doing it in the long term will open us up to new, unexpected and unplanned opportunities. Creativity is borne out of desperation.
• Hirschman would cite Jaws and that Bamboo factory in Bangladesh as examples of this at work. Even the Sydney Opera was part of this argument. You can also add Jimmy Hendrix’s Electric Lady (studio) to the mix.
• But the data tells otherwise. We like the stories cited above because they’re great stories and that’s what we tend to remember. Sometimes they’re also lucky. We don’t need stories, we need data.
• Bent Flyvberg’s data shows that megaprojects do have a high failure rate and these outliers are a result of survivorship bias. Survivorship bias is a type of sample selection bias that occurs when an individual mistakes a visible successful subgroup as the entire group.
• The overrun on benefits, the extent to which the good stuff generated by the project exceeded what was expected - is bigger than the overruns on cost. Data shows that there is no benefit overrun. No home runs.
• A typical project is one in which costs are underestimated and benefits are overestimated. A project costs more than it was supposed to and delivered less than expected. Four out of five projects fit this description. Spielberg got lucky.
• Losses far exceeded gains in projects. This is a fact. Even a VC wouldn’t touch these odds.
• Kahnemas says that optimism is the most signficant of cognitive biases.
• We are hardwired to like the Hero’s Journey.
• We are not mindful of the costs in general. There is so much else at stake.
• But again, the best story would always win in this case. Genius is revered but overrated. Planning trumps everything and brings out an even deeper type of genius,
• Stress can be terrible in poorly planned projects. Imaginative leaps belong in planning, not delivery.

Chapter 8

• A single, determined organism.
• You need an equally strong team to deliver a strong plan. Now it’s time to act fast and deliver.
• Getting the right people on the bus AND placing them in the right seats.
• Cited tale of seasoned, expensive IT manager who insists on bringing his own team. Tried and tested is very powerful.
• Frank Crowe, who built the Hoover Dam has lots of experience. It also comes with mutual trust, respect and understanding.
• But executives with experience are really hard to find. If they exist, get them. Don’t wait until things have gone wrong, hire them up front.
• But a team can be created. As was the case with the Heathrow T5 Project.
• They also used Reference Class Forecasting.
• And it was modular! It wasn’t a construction site but rather an assembly site. Most of the production took place offsite. It was designed for manufacture and assembly.
• We perform at our best when we feel united, empowered and mutually committed to accomplishing something worthwhile.
• Contracts should be harmonized across multiple suppliers and the incentives should be aligned. Interests should be aligned too.
• “If you’re going to win a football game, you need to play with the same squad every season”
• Identity can be the first step (we are one team), purpose is second. It had to matter what you worked for. Show examples of other great projects and align it with yours. Share the whole culture around the organization.
• Always consult your team members for feedback. Psychological safety boosts morale, fosters improvements and ensures that “bad news travels fast” so problems can be tackled quickly.

Chapter 9

• What’s your Lego?
• Get a small thing, a basic building block. Modularity delivers faster, cheaper and better, making it valuable for all project types and sizes.
• Modularity is not just valuable, it’s indispensable.
• Nuclear Power plans are the worst performing project types. Typical projects are designed to deliver on HUGE thing.
• Bespoke is slow and complex. This is great for suits, but bad for megaprojects. And you have no choice but to get it right the first time. And it also eliminates “experiri” because everything is new.
• “Negative learning” - is a result of lacking experimentation and experience. The more you learn, the more difficult and costly things get.
• “Many Small Things” is a better approach to all of this. Figure out your basic lego brick. Let’s shoot for a huge thing made of many small things.
• The core of modularity is repetition. Just like Lego bricks. But repetition also generates experience, making your performance better. This is positive learning.
• “Repetition is the mother of learning” - Repetitio est mater studiorum
• Again - “design for manufacture and assembly” - How does this apply in Software?
• It’s possible for the words, “modular”, “beautiful” and “high quality” to appear in the same sentence.
• Also look at the Gigafactory (Tesla) example. The lego is a small factory.
• The container ship is also a perfect example of modularization.

CODA

1. Hire a Master Builder - Leader should possess all the phronesis needed to make the project hapen.
2. Get Your Team Right - Get the masterbuilder’s team.
3. Ask Why - Good leaders never lose sight of the ultimate result. Always ask yourself if whatever you’re doing contributes to what you’re doing “on the right” (the goal)
4. Build with Lego - Big is best built from small.
5. Think Slow, Act Fast - Do it by taking all the time necessary to create a detailed, tested plan. Delivering is expensive and dangerous.
6. Take the Outside View - Your project is not unique. Think of your project as one of those. Make use of reference class forecasts.
7. Watch Your Downside - Opportunity is as important as risk is false. Go directly to mitigation by spotting and eliminating dangers. Focus on not losing.
8. Say No and Walk Away - Saying no is essential for staying focused. Does an action contribute to the goal on the right? If not, skip it.
9. Make Friends and Keep Them Friendly - Act like a diplomat. It’s risk management. The project’s fate depends on these relationships.
10. Build Climate Mitigation Into Your Project - It’s a common good for everyone.
11. Know That Your Biggest Risk is You - We are still humans.